Changelog

Methodology & data-model changes

Disclaimers: when the index calculation or its inputs change, it's marked here and on the index chart.

• Aug 10, 2026methodologyOil basket constituent updateRemoved oil-production-kbd: latest 2026-05 period was 71 days stale and correlated r=0.951 with oil-rigs-count across 129 overlapping months; history remains published; oil-rigs-count is sole Oil constituent; panel audit passes.
• Aug 9, 2026methodologyVCI panel v1.1 → v1.2The index basket changed from ten declared constituents to seven, and the published level moved from 405.94 (3-month smoothed 405.14) to 273.52 (smoothed 276.07). This is a correction to the basket, not a decline in the economy: the same underlying observations produce a different level because a different, smaller set of series now defines recovery. Removed: fx-trust-gap-pct (its measured leg p2p-usdt-ves is written by two collectors, one of them class C, so the derived series cannot clear the panel's A/B source bar -- it remains published as the flagship Ground Truth reading); bank-credit-ves-bn (r=0.925 with bank-deposits-ves-bn over 58 months); new-vehicle-sales and commercial-vehicle-sales (r=0.934 over 30 months), replaced by their derived sum total-vehicle-sales so the segment split is not counted twice. Three engine defects were fixed in the same change, and they are the reason the previous level was overstated. MIN_PANEL_MONTHS applied a months-based depth bar to series of any cadence, so the annual Trade constituent was silently dropped and the pillar rendered empty. The Production pillar was dark because its two series carried a null pillar in the database. coveragePct divided by the constituents that survived construction rather than the constituents declared, so the site reported 100% coverage while three of ten were missing and two of five pillars were empty. All five pillars now carry a value for the first time. Median absolute month-over-month change fell from 3.56% to 3.02%, and the cumulative splice factor from 1.573x to 1.173x. Every constituent clears pnpm db:audit-panel, which passed for the first time on this change.
• Aug 7, 2026methodologyDaily history reconstructedDaily series back to Jan 1 2026 computed as-of from observation history; monthly series held flat between releases
• Aug 7, 2026methodologyTrust gap addedFX trust gap (P2P vs official) joined the monetary pillar, sign-flipped
• Aug 6, 2026methodologyVCIx launchIndex live: Neon + collectors + daily digest
• Aug 6, 2026dataFX history correctedLive DolarFlow/bcv.today rates replaced demo series
• Jun 1, 2026eventMaiquetía earthquakeJune 2026 quake closed Maiquetía (CCS) airport and damaged power/transport infrastructure — mobility and electricity series carry the shock.