Venezuela Comeback Index

• Aug 10Oil basket constituent update — Removed oil-production-kbd: latest 2026-05 period was 71 days stale and correlated r=0.951 with oil-rigs-count across 129 overlapping months; history remains published; oil-rigs-count is sole Oil constituent; panel audit passes.
• Aug 9VCI panel v1.1 → v1.2 — The index basket changed from ten declared constituents to seven, and the published level moved from 405.94 (3-month smoothed 405.14) to 273.52 (smoothed 276.07). This is a correction to the basket, not a decline in the economy: the same underlying observations produce a different level because a different, smaller set of series now defines recovery. Removed: fx-trust-gap-pct (its measured leg p2p-usdt-ves is written by two collectors, one of them class C, so the derived series cannot clear the panel's A/B source bar -- it remains published as the flagship Ground Truth reading); bank-credit-ves-bn (r=0.925 with bank-deposits-ves-bn over 58 months); new-vehicle-sales and commercial-vehicle-sales (r=0.934 over 30 months), replaced by their derived sum total-vehicle-sales so the segment split is not counted twice. Three engine defects were fixed in the same change, and they are the reason the previous level was overstated. MIN_PANEL_MONTHS applied a months-based depth bar to series of any cadence, so the annual Trade constituent was silently dropped and the pillar rendered empty. The Production pillar was dark because its two series carried a null pillar in the database. coveragePct divided by the constituents that survived construction rather than the constituents declared, so the site reported 100% coverage while three of ten were missing and two of five pillars were empty. All five pillars now carry a value for the first time. Median absolute month-over-month change fell from 3.56% to 3.02%, and the cumulative splice factor from 1.573x to 1.173x. Every constituent clears pnpm db:audit-panel, which passed for the first time on this change.
• Aug 7Daily history reconstructed — Daily series back to Jan 1 2026 computed as-of from observation history; monthly series held flat between releases
• Aug 7Trust gap added — FX trust gap (P2P vs official) joined the monetary pillar, sign-flipped
• Aug 6VCIx launch — Index live: Neon + collectors + daily digest
• Aug 6FX history corrected — Live DolarFlow/bcv.today rates replaced demo series
• Jun 1Maiquetía earthquake — June 2026 quake closed Maiquetía (CCS) airport and damaged power/transport infrastructure — mobility and electricity series carry the shock.

History before launch is reconstructed as-of from stored observations; monthly series hold flat between releases. Methodology and data-model changes are marked on the chart.