Oil gains, but currency instability remains the binding constraint
Oil production rose 4.0% to 1.072mn b/d, but remains at just 31% of its 1997 peak and exports slipped. Credit expanded, yet faster bolívar depreciation, 13.5% monthly inflation and contracting deposits point to a recovery still constrained by monetary instability.
By the numbers
Oil Production
1,072 kbd
+4.0%; 31.0% of the December 1997 peak
Bolívar Daily Depreciation
0.596%
+457.2%; 557.2% of the August 7 peak reference
Inflation (MoM)
13.5%
+121.3%; 32.1% of the January 2023 peak
Bank System Deposits
VES 4,712.1bn
-5.8%; 0.22% of the stated February 2026 peak
Bank Credit Portfolio
VES 2,878.7bn
+1.1%; at a new series peak
Commercial Vehicle Sales
1,675 vehicles
+33.1%; at a new series peak
Startup spotlight
Patria
New benefit payments were scheduled to begin assignment on August 10.
What to watch
- 2026-08-12Deadline for the government and opposition’s initial dialogue push.
- 2026-08-12Next BCV business-day FX fixing; watch whether depreciation remains near 0.6%.
- Next monthly oil releaseWhether higher production translates into exports, which fell 0.9% in the latest reading.
- Next monthly vehicle-sales releaseWhether record commercial sales offset the 11.4% decline in new vehicle sales.
Reading list
- Venezuela’s Government and Opposition Set August 12 Deadline for Initial Dialogue Push — HuffPost España
- OFAC Issues and Updates Licenses for Venezuelan Energy and Mining — U.S. Treasury OFAC
- OFAC Opens Path for Services Supporting a Potential Venezuelan Debt Restructuring — U.S. Treasury OFAC
- Venezuelan Government and Opposition Open U.S.-Backed Transition Talks — AFP via Voz