Oil operations advance, but FX pressure and softer banking liquidity complicate the recovery picture
Operational recovery remains led by hydrocarbons: oil production rose and key Orinoco assets restarted, while airport and power repairs point to broader normalization. But macro conditions are less clean, with both FX rates weakening by about 4 per cent, monthly inflation at 4.29 per cent and system deposits falling, suggesting fragile liquidity beneath the rebound.
By the numbers
Oil Production
916.01 kbd
+1.2%
Oil Export Revenue
USD 1,594.49m
-13.8%
Official FX Rate
755.9 VES/USD
+4.0%
Parallel FX Rate
851.68 VES/USD
+4.0%
Bank System Deposits
USD 11.81bn
-4.8%
Consumer Prices (MoM)
4.29%
+0.49 pp vs prior month
Startup spotlight
Kaso
Launched an SME treasury dashboard.
What to watch
- Next 1-2 weeksFollow-through on Chevron's USD 500mn Petropiar expansion deal and whether the reported risk of a slower expansion alters timelines.
- Next 1-2 weeksSustainability of higher crude exports after new offtake deals and the Petrocedeño upgrader restart.
- August 2026Banking data for signs of whether system deposits stabilise after the August decline despite Banco de Venezuela's reported quarterly growth.
- August 2026Transport and power recovery updates, including Maiquetía flight reactivation and thermoelectric infrastructure repairs after the June earthquake.
Reading list
- Chevron signs 500 million dollar expansion deal for Petropiar joint venture — Reuters
- PDVSA restarts Petrocedeño upgrader, adding 40kbd of extra-heavy crude capacity in the Orinoco Belt — Reuters
- Oil output edges toward 1 million barrels — Reuters
- PDVSA restarts Petrocedeño upgrader, adding 40kbd — Reuters
- Inflation momentum cools for third month — Observatorio Venezolano
- Cashea closes $20M Series B to expand merchant credit in Venezuela — Bloomberg Línea